Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (2024)

  • Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (1)

    Mike Clay, ESPN Senior WriterOct 11, 2023, 09:00 AM ET

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    • Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
    • Member of Pro Football Writers of America
    • Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
    • 2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

Down below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

Projected Shadow Matchups

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (2) Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Giants' Adoree' Jackson (Shadow)

The Adoree' Jackson slot corner experiment seems to be over in New York, with Jackson pivoting back to the perimeter in recent weeks. When Deonte Banks left Week 3 injured, Jackson shadowed Deebo Samuel. He then shadowed Tyler Lockett in Week 4 (Banks was on DK Metcalf) and Tyreek Hill in Week 5 (Banks was on Jaylen Waddle). Quarterbacks haven't been shy about targeting Banks and especially Jackson this season, and New York has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to WRs (fifth most over expected).

Takeaway: It's possible Banks is the one who shadows Diggs, though he seems to match up better with the bigger Gabe Davis, but it might not matter much. Diggs doesn't need to be downgraded.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (3) Commanders' Terry McLaurin vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell (Shadow)

When these teams met in Week 12 last season, Terrell shadowed McLaurin on 12 of his 19 routes, including all 12 perimeter routes. Granted it was obviously a low-volume passing day for Washington, but McLaurin was limited to a 4-48-0 receiving line on six targets in the game. Terrell has shadowed only once this season, but that has primarily been a product of the opposition (e.g., Carolina, Green Bay and Detroit didn't have a clear, established No. 1 perimeter receiver). Terrell's lone shadow came against Calvin Ridley in Week 4. Terrell was on Ridley for 23 of his 26 routes and limited Jacksonville's top receiver to a 2-38-1 receiving line on two targets in the game.

Takeaway: The larger concern for McLaurin is a lack of volume and production, so with the tough matchup in mind, the speedy receiver is no more than a flex option in Week 6.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (4) Broncos' Courtland Sutton vs. Chiefs' L'Jarius Sneed (Shadow)

Sneed has emerged as the Chiefs' No. 1 corner and has been asked to shadow the opposing team's top receiver's perimeter routes each of the past four weeks. That included Calvin Ridley in Week 2, DJ Moore in Week 3, Garrett Wilson in Week 4 and Justin Jefferson last week. Ridley was limited to a 2-32-0 receiving line on seven targets, Moore posted a 3-41-1 line on six targets (Moore went without a catch on three targets against Sneed, and his TD came in garbage time), and Wilson managed a 9-60-0 on 14 targets (2-20-0 on seven targets against Sneed). Jefferson missed some time because of an injury, but was held to a 3-28-0 line in the game. Sneed has clearly been effective and the Chiefs have, in turn, allowed the fewest fantasy points over expected to wide receivers this season. This week, expect Sneed to align against Sutton most of the time, because he spends way more time on the perimeter (73%) than Jerry Jeudy (32%).

Takeaway: Downgrade Sutton in the tough matchup and, because they could see an extra target or two, Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. do not need to be downgraded against Trent McDuffie, Josh Williams and Jaylen Watson.

Tough Matchups

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (5) 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel vs. Browns' Martin Emerson Jr., Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward

The Browns exit their bye week having allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers both overall and to the perimeter on a per-game basis this season. They've allowed the fewest receptions and receiving yards and one TD to the position, and only one WR (George Pickens) has reached 10 fantasy points against them. This could prove problematic for both Aiyuk (75% perimeter) and Samuel (70%).

Both should be downgraded a bit, though Samuel could be bailed out a bit by his usage in the run game. Newsome has the slot locked down as well (Cleveland has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the slot), so Jennings is not likely to benefit from the tough perimeter coverage.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (6) Eagles' DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins and A.J. Brown vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

Whereas the Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, the Jets have allowed the second fewest, as well as the fourth fewest to the perimeter.

New York has surrendered the second-fewest yards and only one TD to opposing WRs. Brown (79% perimeter) and Smith (71%) primarily operate on the boundary, which means most of their work will come against Gardner and, assuming he's out of the concussion protocol, Reed. Gardner and Reed form perhaps the league's best CB duo, so the Eagles' top receivers need to be downgraded.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (7) Saints' Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. Texans' Steven Nelson, Tavierre Thomas and Shaquill Griffin

The Texans continue to slow wide receivers, which is to be expected after they allowed the fewest TDs (six) and fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position in 2022. In 2023, they've surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs overall, seventh fewest to the perimeter and 10th fewest to the slot. That's despite Derek Stingley Jr. (on IR), Griffin and Thomas (the latter two were both out last week) missing significant time because of injury.

The Texans' plans of sitting in zone (72% zone is second highest) seems to be working and could limit the production of New Orleans' receivers this week. Downgrade the trio.

Advantageous Matchups

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (8) Falcons' Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Mack Hollins vs. Commanders' Emmanuel Forbes, Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller

The Commanders have struggled mightily against receivers, having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position (most over expected), as well as the second most to the perimeter. Washington is allowing a league-high 11.0 yards per target to receivers and surrendered huge games to both DJ Moore (49 points) and A.J. Brown (39).

Quarterbacks have heavily targeted the rookie Forbes, and both he and Fuller have allowed substantial fantasy output. That duo will work the perimeter against London (79% perimeter) and Hollins (74%), leaving Pitts to work inside against St-Juste. It's tough to trust Atlanta's pass catchers, but especially after a better showing in Week 5, London and Pitts are viable starts in a good matchup.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (9) Bears' DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown vs. Vikings' Akayleb Evans, Mekhi Blackmon, Josh Metellus and Byron Murphy Jr.

Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (third most over expected), including the eighth most to the perimeter and most to the slot.

This matchup is great news for red-hot Moore (84% perimeter), as he'll work primarily against Murphy, Evans and the rookie Blackmon. Mooney (74% slot) has settled in as Chicago's primary inside receiver and will face off with Metellus. The safety/slot CB has been targeted a massive 34% of the time when aligned against a receiver this season, so Mooney has some deep sleeper appeal this week.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (10) Rams' Tutu Atwell, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs. Cardinals' Marco Wilson, Jalen Thompson and Antonio Hamilton Sr.

Arizona is still trying to sort out its cornerback situation, and that shows up in the numbers. The Cardinals have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers, as well as the ninth most to the perimeter. Nacua (69% perimeter) and Atwell (59%) primarily work outside and will see plenty of Wilson (who struggled badly while shadowing Ja'Marr Chase last week), Hamilton and perhaps sixth-round rookie Kei'Trel Clark. Kupp (56% slot in his season debut last week) will primarily work against safety/slot CB Jalen Thompson inside, or if Thompson (hamstring) is sidelined, expect Hamilton to kick to the slot. Upgrade the Rams' receivers.

Week 6 Shadow Report: A.J. Brown among top WRs to downgrade in Week 6 (2024)

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